Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 0.018737 0.021249 0.023978 0.027165 0.030788 0.034779 0.039512
2025-05-18 0.014626 0.018033 0.022061 0.027180 0.033520 0.041129 0.050971
2025-05-25 0.012174 0.015884 0.020527 0.026774 0.034981 0.045422 0.059760
2025-06-01 0.010758 0.014703 0.019874 0.027169 0.037227 0.050656 0.070031
2025-06-08 0.009480 0.013482 0.018945 0.026972 0.038512 0.054578 0.078776
2025-06-15 0.008756 0.012908 0.018784 0.027740 0.041113 0.060450 0.090731
2025-06-22 0.007684 0.011698 0.017565 0.026808 0.041086 0.062447 0.097097
2025-06-29 0.006934 0.010875 0.016811 0.026453 0.041829 0.065573 0.105375
2025-07-06 0.006165 0.009938 0.015782 0.025548 0.041584 0.067091 0.111173
2025-07-13 0.005894 0.009757 0.015905 0.026464 0.044304 0.073505 0.125494
2025-07-20 0.005598 0.009503 0.015877 0.027113 0.046615 0.079416 0.139486
2025-07-27 0.005360 0.009320 0.015942 0.027909 0.049226 0.086024 0.155267
2025-08-03 0.004948 0.008810 0.015423 0.027673 0.050055 0.089701 0.166330
2025-08-10 0.004618 0.008413 0.015067 0.027692 0.051342 0.094307 0.179569
2025-08-17 0.004257 0.007927 0.014507 0.027278 0.051780 0.097375 0.190160
2025-08-24 0.004047 0.007701 0.014394 0.027681 0.053774 0.103495 0.207215
2025-08-31 0.003777 0.007334 0.013987 0.027480 0.054575 0.107383 0.220181
2025-09-07 0.003653 0.007238 0.014083 0.028263 0.057377 0.115411 0.242333
2025-09-14 0.003335 0.006733 0.013345 0.027312 0.056584 0.116157 0.249325
2025-09-21 0.003112 0.006400 0.012916 0.026951 0.056964 0.119314 0.261727
2025-09-28 0.002850 0.005964 0.012246 0.026028 0.056074 0.119725 0.268142
2025-10-05 0.002793 0.005952 0.012445 0.026962 0.059251 0.129066 0.295395
2025-10-12 0.002713 0.005883 0.012515 0.027623 0.061884 0.137441 0.321248